![]() ![]() The number of meteorologists forecasting the development of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean this summer are growing. TSR gives these two factors forecast-skill levels of 23% and 30% respectively and say that there is still a lot of uncertainty around them both. Secondly, the sea surface temperatures of the area of the tropical Atlantic responsible for most tropical storm and hurricane development is forecast to be cooler than normal due to El Niño in August and September. The likely formation of moderate El Niño conditions will coincide with these lighter trade winds in August and September, according to analysis of long-range dynamical and statistical models. The forecasters cite two factors as leading the forecasters to believe that 2014 will be a below-average year for Atlantic hurricane formation.įirstly, computer models now indicate that trade winds over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic will be a little weaker than normal from July through September. Adam Lea have reduced their forecast to 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major (Category 3+) hurricanes, which is around 25% below the 1950-2013 norm and 40% below the more recent 2004-2013 norm. With the update published yesterday, TSR’s Professor Mark Saunders and Dr. TSR was one of the first forecasters to provide an early outlook for the 2014 hurricane season back in December when it forecast 14 named tropical storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major (Category 3+) hurricanes between the months of June and November in 2014. This is why most evacuation orders are given for water, not wind.Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has published an updated and lowered quantitative forecast for the 2014 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season citing the likely development of moderate El Niño (ENSO) conditions. When there are high winds, but no danger of flooding (rare in hurricanes, but also important during any storm), it’s important to shelter in place in a sturdy structure, away from doors and windows. When you’re at risk from flooding, it’s important to get to high ground away from bodies of water and any flood-prone areas. Historically, about half of direct fatalities offsite link from hurricanes that make landfall in the U.S. ![]() With much of the United States' densely populated Atlantic and Gulf Coast coastlines less than 10 feet above mean sea level, the danger from storm surges is tremendous. This rise in water level can cause severe flooding in coastal areas. Storm surge is water that is pushed toward the shore by winds swirling around the storm. Though hurricanes are well known for strong and destructive winds, hurricane storm surge is the greatest threat. If you live in a low-lying or flood prone area, always have an evacuation plan before a storm begins. Always follow evacuation orders and never drive into flooded roadways. These rains can occur not only at the coast, but many miles inland, causing flooding that can continue for days or even weeks after a storm. The moisture cools as it rises and condenses into heavy rain, often much more than a typical low pressure system offsite link. In tropical cyclones, the air is particularly warm and can hold a tremendous amount of moisture. Warm air can hold more moisture than cool air. Be prepared to evacuate and do so immediately when ordered. Evacuation orders are released to ensure residents have enough time to leave vulnerable areas before the first hazards from the storm arrive. Local officials may issue evacuation orders before storm or storm surge watches or warnings are issued for your area. Even if you’ve previously survived a storm in your area, future hurricanes may bring different hazards. It’s critical to know your risk, especially if you live in a storm surge evacuation zone or in an area where flooding could occur. Conservation Service Corp Act Direct Hiring AuthorityĮach tropical system can bring a variety of unique, life-threatening hazards to a given location.Information for NOAA student opportunity alumni.About the education resource collections.NOAA Sea to Sky: Education resource database.NOAA in your backyard: Education contacts near you. ![]()
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